- How big is the addressable market? As soon as the team can characterize the potential audience for an innovation, it becomes possible to estimate how many users and buyers exist. How big is the audience, in your geography, of people who represent the demographics, have purchasing ability and are reachable by your brand? Once you have this estimate, take the 1% test, i.e., would a good result be to earn 1% of the market?
- What would you have to believe? In the absence of a rearview mirror’s worth of history, better to look forward and envision market, customer, operational and other basics that would need to exist for a concept to appear reasonable. A useful answer to this question assumes the team’s ability to avoid clouding the future view of what is possible with too much knowledge of past precedents that may now be irrelevant. What does the intensity of user reaction to prototypes reveal: Are you solving a functional problem, or are you also hitting an emotional chord with your audience, suggesting a willingness to buy? What breakthroughs can you discern by examining what is happening in other markets or sectors?
- What are the key drivers of revenue and expenses? In early iterations, set aside the spreadsheets and calculators. Think conceptually about your preliminary assumptions regarding the business model. What appears to be the primary revenue driver? And what do your assumptions suggest about potential expense drivers? Perhaps early on each of these will only be assigned “high” “medium” or “low” designations to indicate importance, but not be any more quantifiable.
- Can you figure out the unit profit model? Factor in early tests, as you refine your prototype and begin to engage potential users, gathering insight to determine the unit profit model and how comfortable the team is that it can be delivered.
- What is the potential to scale? With the confidence that you understand unit-level profitability dynamics, test for the path to scale. What will it take to attract each new customer or dollar of sales, for example, and how steep will the growth curve be?
Reframing Metrics to Enable Innovation
Executives who can reframe metrics will energize employees and increase their organizations’ innovation effectiveness.